Market Overview
Broadly speaking, the global foreign exchange market is showing a mixed but cautiously upbeat tone. The U.S. dollar remains under pressure from expectations of future interest-rate cuts, while high-quality currencies such as the euro and sterling are showing tentative signs of stability or modest strength. At the same time risk-sentiment remains fragile, and numerous macro data releases and central-bank speeches loom that could upset current positions. Technical indicators remain tilted to risk of continued U.S. dollar strength in the short term, but medium-term fundamentals suggest a gradual shift away from the dollar may be gaining traction. For market participants this means the coming week is likely to be one of consolidation and event-driven spikes rather than large trend shifts.
Previous Week’s Recap
Over the past week the key developments included:
- The EUR/USD pair continued to flirt with the 1.1500 zone, trading around 1.1540 at one point, with bearish pressure dominating as the U.S. dollar regained traction.
- The pair fell below its rising trend‐line (which had been in place since late June) signalling a potential shift in momentum.
- Forecast models show the monthly range for EUR/USD being roughly between 1.14 and 1.18 for November, and the U.S. dollar drying out of fresh strength into other currencies such as the Canadian dollar or yen.
- The major currency crosses remain vulnerable to swings in risk appetite and yield differentials as central banks signal policy normalisation or easing.
- On the fundamental side, markets remain wary of upcoming data releases, and positioning appears to remain skewed toward a weaker dollar in the medium-term, even if short-term volatility favours the dollar.
Overall last week reinforced the idea that the dollar remains very much in control in the short term, while alternative currencies are on watch for the next leg of moves.
Fundamental Outlook
Here are the key macroeconomic events, central bank meetings and reports likely to influence the major FX pairs in the coming week (24-28 November). Times are local to the data calendar’s usual reference (for convenience we show some typical major event times though local time may need adjustment):
| Day | Event / Release | Time (Local) |
| Monday | (No major headline scheduled yet in major currencies) | — |
| Tuesday | (Potential early releases: e.g. German retail sales, Euro-area consumer confidence) | — |
| Wednesday | U.S. durable goods orders, Eurozone inflation (flash) | e.g. 13:30 GMT / local adjust |
| Thursday | U.S. GDP‐growth (advance estimate), Bank of England rate decision | e.g. 13:30 GMT / 12:00 GMT |
| Friday | U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, U.S. consumer sentiment index | e.g. 13:30 GMT / 14:00 GMT |
Note: Please check actual releases and the exact local/time-zone conversions for your region. The economic calendar tool shows all releases with impact flags and is widely used by traders.
Technical Analysis
Here is a snapshot of chart conditions for key pairs:
In summary the charts suggest that the major pairs are either consolidating or in modest correction phases, with clear levels to watch for reversals or continuation.
Weekly Forecast / Bias
For the week 24-28 November the directional view and expected trading ranges are as follows:
- For EUR/USD the bias remains modestly bearish. The pair may attempt a corrective bounce but the stronger scenario is a drift toward the support zone in the 1.1500–1.1450 area, unless strong supportive data from the Eurozone or an abrupt risk reversal occurs.
- For GBP/USD the outlook is neutral to mildly bearish, with an expectation of range-bound action between ~1.2950 and ~1.3400. A decisive break above 1.3400 would shift the bias more bullish, but absent that the bias remains skewed to the downside.
- For USD/JPY the bias is mildly bearish for USD (i.e., mildly bullish for JPY) under the scenario of growth concerns or safe-haven flows, but a continuation of U.S. yield strength would keep USD/JPY elevated. Expect range roughly between 149.00 and 156.00.
Key Levels Summary
| Pair | Bias | Support | Resistance | Comment |
| EUR/USD | Bearish | ~1.1450 | ~1.1770 | Key structural support in play; major resistance still intact. |
| GBP/USD | Neutral-/Mild Bearish | ~1.2950 | ~1.3400 | Range bound unless breakthroughs occur. |
| USD/JPY | Mildly Bullish USD (or Bearish JPY) | ~149.00 | ~156.00 | Safe-haven dynamics and yield differential to monitor. |
Practical Trading Notes
- Headline risks remain elevated: data surprises, central-bank remarks and geopolitical shocks can produce sharp moves. Always monitor the economic calendar closely.
- The correlation of major currency pairs with the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) remains strong. A rising DXY tends to correlate with weaker EUR/USD and GBP/USD and higher USD/JPY.
- Market consensus and position-flow indicators suggest that many traders are already positioned for a weaker dollar in the medium term, which implies that the next leg of dollar strength may catch many off-guard if fundamentals shift.
- Reward-to-risk management is critical: with technical levels defined and ranges visible, mechanical setups (entries near support/resistance with tight stops) may be more appropriate in this environment than chasing large trending moves.
- Keep an eye on correlations across asset classes: risk-on/risk-off swings (via equities, commodities, bonds) can influence FX momentum, particularly for the commodity-linked and safe-haven pairs.
Final Checklist
Before the new week begins, traders should ensure the following:
- Confirm all relevant time-zone conversions for upcoming data releases.
- Pre-mark support and resistance levels on your charts for the major pairs noted above.
- Review pending central-bank and policy-speech calendar items and assess how they might impact yield differentials.
- Check existing positions for vulnerability to surprise data or broad market shock (e.g., sudden risk-off).
- Ensure stop-loss levels and size limits are set in line with range projections and risk tolerance.
- Assess correlation exposures (for example: if long EUR/USD you should be aware of your DXY exposure and commodity/carry FX exposures).
- Refresh your contingency plan in case of breakout moves beyond the normal ranges (i.e., what happens if EUR/USD breaks above 1.1800 or below 1.1400).
- Remain agile and ready to shift bias if either technical structure or fundamentals change meaningfully during the week.
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